Mexico Open 2026

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico this week for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Vallarta, a tournament that has produced some seriously low scores in recent years. The course has undergone a significant revamp since last season, so it’s worth remembering that we’re not quite dealing with the same test as before. The event has also moved into the FedExCup Fall schedule, giving players fighting to secure their Tour status an added incentive to perform.

Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman design measuring around 7,337 yards and playing as a par 71. It’s a relatively generous layout, with wide fairways, manageable rough and large greens, encouraging players to attack. The changes include a shorter fourth hole, the 11th switching from a par 3 to a par 4, and the 13th becoming a drivable par 4. The 15th has also changed from a par 4 to a par 3, alongside other alterations to the closing stretch. Situated close to sea level, there’s no major altitude advantage here, while warm conditions and potentially some wind should make for a very playable setup.

The past champions give us a good idea of the scoring potential. Jon Rahm won at 17 under in 2022, Tony Finau posted a tournament-record 24 under in 2023, Jake Knapp won at 19 under in 2024, and Brian Campbell finished at 20 under last year. With the revised layout, those figures should be treated as a guide rather than a guarantee, but another winning score well into the teens under par looks realistic.

For me, the key this week is finding players who can combine solid driving with excellent approach play and a hot putter. Distance has helped here, but Campbell’s win last year showed that accuracy and taking advantage of scoring opportunities can be just as important. I’d be looking particularly closely at players who excel from inside 150 yards and can make birdies in bunches. With the course changes adding an element of uncertainty, I wouldn’t rely too heavily on previous course form alone. This looks like a good week to find value among players whose recent statistics suggest they can go low.

Luke Clanton 1.5pts ew 40/1 (10 places William Hill)

Luke Clanton is an interesting one this week, arriving in Mexico off the back of a T11 finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, where he closed at 12 under par. That followed an excellent T7 at the Bank of Utah Championship earlier in October, where he finished 21 under after rounds of 67, 69, 65 and 62. He didn't play in between those two events, so there's no extra result to account for. While he missed the cut at the Biltmore Championship Asheville in September, those two recent finishes suggest there's plenty to like heading into Mexico.

The biggest positive is his approach play. Clanton ranks 20th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining an average of 0.497 strokes per round, with that figure rising to +1.004 over his last five starts. He was particularly impressive with his irons in Utah, gaining 8.47 strokes on approach alone. The concern is that he's losing strokes off the tee (-0.401 per round) and on the greens (-0.364) for the season, although he gained 4.50 strokes putting in Bermuda. He has no previous Mexico Open course form, but with birdies likely to be plentiful, his ability to create chances with his irons makes him an appealing option.

There is a bit of risk here, but the recent ball-striking is encouraging, and Clanton has shown he can go very low when everything clicks. If he can keep the putter warm and avoid giving too much away off the tee, I can see him getting involved. 

Andrew Novak 1pt ew 33/1 (10 places Boyles)

Andrew Novak is an interesting one at 33/1 this week, particularly given his previous record at Vidanta. He's played the Mexico Open three times, finishing T15 in 2022, T49 in 2023 and an encouraging T8 in 2024 at 12 under par. The course has changed since last year's redesign, so we can't rely too heavily on those results, but at least we know he's capable of handling the venue. His recent form has been a little mixed, with a T44 in Bermuda last week, although a T17 at the Biltmore Championship Asheville and a T7 at the Wyndham Championship earlier in the season show he has the ability to put together a strong week.

The recent statistics are reasonably encouraging off the tee and around the greens, where he's gaining strokes, but the putter remains a concern. He's been losing strokes on the greens over his last five tournaments, which could prove costly on a course where birdies should be plentiful. At 33/1, however, his course experience and previous top-ten finish make him an interesting value option. I'd like to see the putting improve, but there's enough in his record to justify a closer look.

Steven Fisk 1pt ew 50/1 (10 places Powers)

Steven Fisk comes into the Mexico Open looking to build on some encouraging results during the Fall Series. He finished T7 at the Bank of Utah Championship at 21 under par, following a T22 at the Biltmore Championship Asheville. His most recent outing at the Baycurrent Classic was disappointing, but there's enough in his recent form to suggest he can bounce back. He also has a win on the PGA Tour this season, having claimed the ISCO Championship in July.

Fisk finished T17 at the Mexico Open last year at 12 under par, giving him some positive course form to build on. His driving distance is a strength, averaging around 312 yards, and his putting numbers have also been encouraging. The concern is his approach play, where he's been losing strokes, and that could be important on a course where birdies should be plentiful. If he can sharpen up with his irons and take advantage of the scoring opportunities, there's a good chance he can put together another solid week in Mexico.

Patrick Rodgers 1pt ew 66/1 (10 places Powers)

Patrick Rodgers is one of those players who has had the talent to win on the PGA Tour for a long time, but is still waiting to get that first victory over the line. His college and amateur career was outstanding, winning 11 times at Stanford to tie Tiger Woods' school record, while he also swept the three major US college player-of-the-year awards in 2014. He has since recorded 31 PGA Tour top tens, including four runner-up finishes, but that elusive first Tour win continues to escape him. His ability has never really been in question, and a strong week in Mexico would be another opportunity to finally put that right.

Rodgers has a particularly good record at Vidanta, finishing 10th in 2022, T10 in 2023, T6 in 2024 and T25 last year. He's posted 13 under par in three of those four appearances, showing a real knack for getting around this course. His recent form has been steady rather than spectacular, with a T45 at the Bank of Utah Championship followed by T29 at the Baycurrent Classic. Statistically, putting has been the strongest part of his game this season, gaining 0.263 strokes per round, while his approach play has been a weakness at -0.311. If he can improve with his irons and take advantage of the birdie opportunities, his excellent course record suggests he has the capabilities to put himself in contention again.

Danny Walker 1pt ew 100/1 (10 places Boyles)

Danny Walker heads to Mexico after an excellent T6 finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, closing at 13 under par after rounds of 63, 67 and 70. That opening 63 was particularly impressive, and it's a welcome boost after a fairly inconsistent run of results. He also finished T32 at the Bank of Utah Championship earlier this month, shooting 15 under, so there are signs that his game is beginning to come together.

Walker also has positive course form to build on, having finished T13 at Vidanta last year at 13 under par. Statistically, his driving distance is a strength, averaging 308.6 yards, but the wider numbers show room for improvement. He's gaining 0.129 strokes per round below the Tour average on approach and losing 0.336 on the greens, while ranking 63rd in driving distance. The recent T6 in Bermuda is encouraging, and if he can carry that momentum into Mexico while improving his iron play and putting, he's shown enough to suggest he can put together another competitive week.