BMW Championship 2026

The FedExCup Playoffs move on to St. Louis this week for the BMW Championship, the second of three postseason events and arguably the most unforgiving of the lot. The field has already been cut from 70 to 50, and by Sunday evening another 20 players will see their seasons come to an end. Only the top 30 in the FedExCup standings will advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship at East Lake, making every shot at Bellerive potentially crucial. The winner will also collect 750 FedExCup points from a $20 million purse.

Bellerive Country Club provides a suitably demanding stage. The Robert Trent Jones Sr. design is a classic American parkland course, stretching to 7,448 yards as a par 70 for this week's championship. Wide, tree-lined corridors are complemented by substantial bunkering and water hazards, while the greens demand precision rather than simply power. The course was renovated by Rees Jones ahead of the 2018 PGA Championship, retaining its traditional character while bringing it up to modern championship standards.

This is a course where strong ball-striking should be rewarded. Bellerive can offer plenty of room from the tee, but the approach shots become increasingly important, with long holes and well-protected greens placing a premium on both distance and accuracy. At this stage of the season, however, there is an added layer of intrigue: unlike a regular PGA Tour event, there is no cut, meaning every player gets 72 holes to either strengthen their position or fight their way into the top 30.

It has been 18 years since the PGA TOUR last visited Bellerive for a BMW Championship. The previous occasion was in 2008, when Camilo Villegas claimed victory by two shots after a 15-under-par performance. The venue then returned to the major spotlight for the 2018 PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka lifted the Wanamaker Trophy.

Now Bellerive gets another BMW Championship, and the stakes are considerably higher than simply lifting a trophy. With Scottie Scheffler arriving as the FedExCup leader and the top 30 spots at East Lake on the line, this should be a fascinating week of elite golf where position in the standings can matter almost as much as position on the leaderboard.

Rory McIlroy 3pts ew 12/1 (10 places Powers)

It would be irresponsible to allow Rory McIlroy’s difficult week in Memphis to be the defining factor when assessing his chances at the BMW Championship. After almost a month away from competitive golf, last week was always likely to be about shaking off the rust, and a 66th-place finish was clearly well below the standard we have come to expect from the world No. 2. McIlroy himself admitted afterwards that his game was “so far away” from where he wanted it to be, but there were signs of improvement as the week progressed.

Now, with a tournament under his belt, there is every reason to expect a bounce back towards the elite level we know he is capable of. The Irish No. 1 remains 13th in the FedExCup standings, comfortably inside the top 30 required to reach East Lake, but a strong week at Bellerive could significantly strengthen his position heading into the finale.

The biggest weapon remains the driver. McIlroy ranks second on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season, and Bellerive’s combination of length and generous landing areas should give one of the game's best drivers plenty of opportunity to impose himself. He has also averaged 0.452 strokes gained off the tee across his last five tournaments, suggesting that the underlying strength of his driving remains intact despite last week's overall struggles.

If Memphis was simply the inevitable rust of returning to competition, rather than a genuine deterioration in his game, Bellerive presents an ideal opportunity to prove it. The BMW Championship demands four rounds from a field of just 50, with no cut to disrupt a player's comeback. For McIlroy, the target is straightforward: rediscover the tee-to-green dominance that has made him one of the most formidable players in the world, and the scoring opportunities should follow.

Hideki Matsuyama 2pts ew 20/1 (10 places bet365)

Hideki Matsuyama has been one of the most reliable players on the PGA Tour this season, and that consistency deserves plenty of attention this week. He is a perfect 21-for-21 in cuts made, with six consecutive top-14 finishes coming into the BMW Championship. Even more impressively, the last four have all resulted in top-seven finishes. He arrives at Bellerive playing some of the best golf of his season, and there is a growing feeling that Matsuyama is a winner waiting to happen.

Last week's performance at TPC Southwind was particularly intriguing when you dig beneath the final result. Matsuyama ranked sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, fourth in approach and tied third for driving accuracy, an excellent combination on a course where his ball-striking will be tested again this week. That is especially encouraging given that he ranks only 103rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the season. If that driving performance wasn't merely a one-week spike, it could elevate Matsuyama's game to another level at Bellerive.

There was also plenty of scoring last week, with Matsuyama making 18 birdies, but the 10 bogeys and a double bogey tell their own story. The upside is obvious: he is creating enough opportunities to produce a huge number. The challenge is eliminating the careless dropped shots that prevented last week's excellent ball-striking from translating into an even stronger finish.

With only 50 players remaining and a place in the top 30 at East Lake on the line, the BMW Championship carries enormous FedExCup significance. Matsuyama is already in a strong position, but another top finish would put him firmly into the conversation at the business end of the Playoffs.

At his current level, and with the driver showing signs of life, Matsuyama has everything required to make a serious run at the title. Cut out the unnecessary mistakes, maintain the quality of his approach play and reproduce last week's driving performance, and perhaps the man capable of stopping the Scottie Scheffler train has been sitting quietly in the station all along.

Sam Burns 2.5pts ew 14/1 (10 places bet365)

I’m sticking with Sam Burns this week, even if last Sunday produced perhaps the most infuriating place money I’ve collected in a while. The plan was simple: we needed Scottie Scheffler to start slowly and Burns to come out firing, putting some early pressure on the FedExCup leader. Instead, both struggled early, before Scheffler somehow turned a tricky start into a four-under round. Burns, unfortunately, went in the opposite direction, limping home with a three-over 73 and watching another genuine chance disappear. His tie for third nevertheless represented a fourth top-four finish in his last six starts, and at this point he is surely knocking on the door hard enough that it has to open eventually.

There was plenty to like beneath the disappointing Sunday. Burns ranked seventh in Strokes Gained: Putting at TPC Southwind, continuing what has been an outstanding season on the greens where he sits second on Tour. He was also third in approach for the week, underlining that the ingredients for a breakthrough performance remain firmly in place.

The question now is whether the repeated near misses, particularly the Sunday struggles, have begun to take a mental toll. Burns clearly has the game to compete with the very best — his recent run of results is proof enough — but repeatedly finding himself within touching distance only to come up short can test even the strongest mentality.

At No. 6 in the FedExCup standings, he is already safely through to East Lake, but that should hardly diminish the incentive this week. With only 50 players remaining, Burns has another opportunity to turn all of those excellent performances into the victory his current level deserves.

So, can the Shreveport, Louisiana native finally rise to the occasion when it matters most? Or does disappointment define another week where the numbers suggest he should have been right there? I’m prepared to give him another chance. At some point, all of these near misses have to turn into something.

Nexo Championship 2026

The Nexo Championship 2026, at Trump International, offers a typically demanding test on a strategic, wind-affected layout that rewards accuracy off the tee and a sharp long game, with scoring often dictated by patience as much as aggression over four days.

Filippo Celli 1pt ew 45/1 (10 places bet365)

Looks an appealing each-way play at 45/1 after showing steady progress with a recent top-20 finish that highlighted improved control from tee to green. He has the kind of composed, methodical profile that tends to travel well in tougher conditions.

Davis Bryant 1pt ew 60/1 (10 places bet365)

Another interesting outsider at 60/1, having posted a strong closing 66 in his most recent start to secure a top-15 finish. If he carries that momentum into a more consistent week on the greens, he has the firepower to contend deeper into Sunday.

K.H. Lee 1pt ew 150/1 (10 places bet365)

K.H. Lee is the class angle at bigger odds at 150/1, and while his form has been mixed, he has shown flashes of his best with a recent made cut and a top-30 finish on a strong field. If he finds rhythm off the tee, his proven winning pedigree makes him dangerous in a field like this.